Unofficial Rankings C

[Riptide]

Mounds View is always really hard to predict but they placed 4th last year and it's difficult to give a reason for placing them much differently. Mira Loma meanwhile has seemingly had a down year which is why I put them where they're at.

Mounds View placed 5th last year.

[jaggie34]

Mounds View is always really hard to predict but they placed 4th last year and it's difficult to give a reason for placing them much differently. Mira Loma meanwhile has seemingly had a down year which is why I put them where they're at.

Mounds View placed 5th last year.

True, my bad, but what I said still stands.

[Name]

*I'm not going to include my own school because I don't want to have any bias but here's what I think:
1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Mason
4. Acton-Boxborough
5. Mounds View
6. WWPS
7. Seven Lakes
8. Columbia
9. Harriton
10. Mira Loma
11. New Trier
12. Ward Melville
13. Adlai E. Stevenson
14. Brookwood
15. William G. Enloe
16. TJHSST
17. Ed W. Clark
18. Bothell
19. Northville
20. Madison West


1. Troy: They're Troy, I don't think much else has to be said.
2-4. Solon, Mason, Acton-Boxborough: All top tier teams, I'm pretty confident that this will end up being the next three but there isn't much showing competition between each other besides Ohio States for Mason and Solon which made it tough to rank them.
5-8. Mounds View, WWPS, Seven Lakes, Colombia: Mounds View is always hard to rank since they go to so few invitationals, but I feel like this is about where they'll fall this year. WWPS is also tough because they usually don't stack for most of the year. Seven Lakes and Colombia both have beaten very high-level competition which is why I've placed them where they are.
9-11. Harriton, Mira Loma, New Trier: These three were probably the most difficult to place, mostly because I could see any of the three moving up into the next tier but I could also see them falling farther down. Harriton especially was difficult as history shows that they'll place top 10 but their result this year don't show a top 10 team in my opinion. The same thing goes for Mira Loma, except I think they have both a lower ceiling and a higher floor. New Trier meanwhile has done well at competitions but I placed them here purely because of the number of top tier teams this year.
12-14. Ward Melville, Adlai E. Stevenson, Brookwood: I haven't gotten a chance to compete against any of these teams but based on the invitational scores I have seen, this seems to be about right. Brookwood would jump up from 23rd last year but based on their score at states I feel comfortable with that.
15-20. William G. Enloe, TJHSST, Ed W. Clark, Bothell, Northville, Madison West: I've seen some of these teams in person and they definitely all have the potential to move up, I just placed them here partially because of uncertainty and partially because I feel that there are so many great teams this year.

What are everyone's thoughts?

First of all, uh hello? Rustin exists. They are absolutely going to get top 20. Even though their invitational performances weren't as good as other teams, they have certainly improved and are going to do well at nationals. At least put them around 15th. Second of all, Ward Melville is wayyyy too high. No offense, but their states score really was not impressive (at least compared to Columbia's- more on that in a second). They seemed to be a lot stronger earlier in the season, and unless they work really hard they're not going to be above 15th. I'd say 16th-18th, which is where everyone else is putting them. Third of all, Columbia is a tad too low for my taste. No one is acknowledging the fact that they got a record-breaking states score! It's impossible to get a sub-100 score in New York div C. The fact that Ward Melville got to nats with 213 just goes to show you how well Columbia did. They should be 6th or 7th. Fourth of all, yes, Seven Lakes is really good and they're going to be top 10, but they're not as strong as previous years. They did medal a lot, and they were relatively consistent, but they didn't get as many gold medals as LASA and they certainly didn't beat LASA by a large margin. I know Texas is extremely competitive but I would place Seven Lakes at 8th or 9th. Now as for the rest of my points, I'm not as experienced with div C so I don't know if I'm qualified to say any of this, but here goes.
5. Bothell is too high. Historically, they haven't been top 20 for a while, and they only beat Camas on a technicality (sort of). I personally would not put them in top 20 and I think that they're not going to match how Camas would have done.
6. I honestly think that everyone is overrating Acton-Boxborough. Yes, their performance at MIT was unexpected and shocking and really, really good, but people are tending to forget that a lot of top teams were missing (read: Solon, Mason, Troy, WWPS, etc.) Of course, AB still was very impressive, but there were other factors that allowed them to win. I'd still place them in top 10 but maybe not top 5.
7. What is Brookwood doing so high up there? States scores (especially for them and Chattahoochee) don't exactly correlate to nats placement. Even though the disparity between the two teams was a lot more than it usually is, I still think they should be relatively close together, and Brookwood should not be in top 15. I'd say maybe around 18th for them (possibly lower) with Chattahoochee at least within 4 places of them. If you want to put Brookwood at 14th you need Chattahoochee top 20.
8. I feel like I want to say something about where you put Mira Loma and Mounds View, but I really don't know enough about the teams. Mira Loma seems fair but Mounds View might be a tiny bit too high? Anyway, most of your predictions are accurate. Keep improving them, though!

Nice essay again. Chill a little bit.
Also you said Acton probably isn't top 5, while putting Columbia at 6th/7th. Both Acton's unstacked teams beat Columbia at MIT. Imagine Acton stacking at MIT. North is similar to South- both unstacked North teams got destroyed by Acton. 7L is similar enough to Clements/LASA which both lost to both unstacked Acton teams. I don't think Acton's overrated, in fact I think if they have a good day they can be top 3 overall.

[kate!]

omitted for brevity

I had Rustin right outside that top 20, I do think they'll do well but we dont know what those improvements might be so based on what I've seen that's about where they should be. I place Ward Melville at 12 due to being very competitive at cornell and then having a nine state advantage which I do believe will play into the rankings slightly. Also you have to consider that the difference between 12th and 15th place at nationals last year was 19 point, so having even a slightly below or above average day can change a lot and there isnt Mich a difference between 12th and 15th-16th. Columbia definitely could get higher, but again I feel that there are many strong teams this year and I just happened to place them below the others based on what I'd seen. Seven also consistently has placed 1st at invites and also has less points then last year. Texas always has wierd raw scores because of the way they count trials and drop events, but they still had quite an improvement from last year. Bothell performed relatively well at invites (GGSO for example) and beat Camas which is why I think they'll get top 20. Acton Boxbourough was dominant throughout the year, and yes many good teams were not at MIT but they also won unstacked and completely destroyed their state competition. Brookwood might not place as high as I put them but they had a substantial drop in their score at Georgia states and will definitely move way up from last year. They also performed well at UGA eith more competition than last year. Mounds View is always really hard to predict but they placed 5th last year and it's difficult to give a reason for placing them much differently. Mira Loma meanwhile has seemingly had a down year which is why I put them where they're at.

I guess I agree with you on most of that, your points are valid. However I completely disagree about Ward Melville and Rustin. Rustin had a lower score at states than they've ever had in a year they've gone to nationals, and the difference between them and Harriton was also relatively small. If anything, that shows how much they've improved, and they're also consistent, which is really important in such a competitive state and quite honestly reflects how they'll do at nats (relatively). They also have good build events, which can make or break a team. I don't see them outside of top 20 for any reason. And as for Ward Melville, I know how close those places were at last year's nats, but that has nothing to do with what's going to happen this year. I do think they're strong this season, from their record-breaking regionals score to their impressive Cornell performance, but unless they fix whatever went wrong at states, they're not going to get 12th.

[kate!]

omitted for brevity

Nice essay again. Chill a little bit.
Also you said Acton probably isn't top 5, while putting Columbia at 6th/7th. Both Acton's unstacked teams beat Columbia at MIT. Imagine Acton stacking at MIT. North is similar to South- both unstacked North teams got destroyed by Acton. 7L is similar enough to Clements/LASA which both lost to both unstacked Acton teams. I don't think Acton's overrated, in fact I think if they have a good day they can be top 3 overall.

While I do think all that comparing is a bit of a stretch, I guess I have to agree with part of that. I didn't take into account that they were unstacked at MIT. I mean, they do have a shot at top 5 and it's realistic that they get there. But I'm going to be skeptical until we have more evidence than MIT (which we won't have).
As for placing Columbia at 6th and 7th, my individual commentary is not reflective on the other individual commentaries I made on the post. Obviously when I make my own prediction there can only be one 6th place team but right now I'm giving ranges. And I'm not going to chill because I have strong opinions about Rustin and Ward Melville and I would like to defend them instead of ignoring this.

[EastStroudsburg13]

I had Rustin right outside that top 20, I do think they'll do well but we dont know what those improvements might be so based on what I've seen that's about where they should be. I place Ward Melville at 12 due to being very competitive at cornell and then having a nine state advantage which I do believe will play into the rankings slightly. Also you have to consider that the difference between 12th and 15th place at nationals last year was 19 point, so having even a slightly below or above average day can change a lot and there isnt Mich a difference between 12th and 15th-16th. Columbia definitely could get higher, but again I feel that there are many strong teams this year and I just happened to place them below the others based on what I'd seen. Seven also consistently has placed 1st at invites and also has less points then last year. Texas always has wierd raw scores because of the way they count trials and drop events, but they still had quite an improvement from last year. Bothell performed relatively well at invites (GGSO for example) and beat Camas which is why I think they'll get top 20. Acton Boxbourough was dominant throughout the year, and yes many good teams were not at MIT but they also won unstacked and completely destroyed their state competition. Brookwood might not place as high as I put them but they had a substantial drop in their score at Georgia states and will definitely move way up from last year. They also performed well at UGA eith more competition than last year. Mounds View is always really hard to predict but they placed 5th last year and it's difficult to give a reason for placing them much differently. Mira Loma meanwhile has seemingly had a down year which is why I put them where they're at.

I guess I agree with you on most of that, your points are valid. However I completely disagree about Ward Melville and Rustin. Rustin had a lower score at states than they've ever had in a year they've gone to nationals, and the difference between them and Harriton was also relatively small. If anything, that shows how much they've improved, and they're also consistent, which is really important in such a competitive state and quite honestly reflects how they'll do at nats (relatively). They also have good build events, which can make or break a team. I don't see them outside of top 20 for any reason. And as for Ward Melville, I know how close those places were at last year's nats, but that has nothing to do with what's going to happen this year. I do think they're strong this season, from their record-breaking regionals score to their impressive Cornell performance, but unless they fix whatever went wrong at states, they're not going to get 12th.

I think when bringing up a home-state advantage (which is what I assume jaggie meant to say, rather than "nine state" which may be the result of autocorrect), you have to consider actual distance. Since Ward is on Long Island, they're actually further away from Cornell by driving distance than Rustin and Harriton.

[kate!]

I guess I agree with you on most of that, your points are valid. However I completely disagree about Ward Melville and Rustin. Rustin had a lower score at states than they've ever had in a year they've gone to nationals, and the difference between them and Harriton was also relatively small. If anything, that shows how much they've improved, and they're also consistent, which is really important in such a competitive state and quite honestly reflects how they'll do at nats (relatively). They also have good build events, which can make or break a team. I don't see them outside of top 20 for any reason. And as for Ward Melville, I know how close those places were at last year's nats, but that has nothing to do with what's going to happen this year. I do think they're strong this season, from their record-breaking regionals score to their impressive Cornell performance, but unless they fix whatever went wrong at states, they're not going to get 12th.

I think when bringing up a home-state advantage (which is what I assume jaggie meant to say, rather than "nine state" which may be the result of autocorrect), you have to consider actual distance. Since Ward is on Long Island, they're actually further away from Cornell by driving distance than Rustin and Harriton.

Plus this was actually the first year Ward Melville has been at Cornell, so it's not much of an advantage.

[jaggie34]

I guess I agree with you on most of that, your points are valid. However I completely disagree about Ward Melville and Rustin. Rustin had a lower score at states than they've ever had in a year they've gone to nationals, and the difference between them and Harriton was also relatively small. If anything, that shows how much they've improved, and they're also consistent, which is really important in such a competitive state and quite honestly reflects how they'll do at nats (relatively). They also have good build events, which can make or break a team. I don't see them outside of top 20 for any reason. And as for Ward Melville, I know how close those places were at last year's nats, but that has nothing to do with what's going to happen this year. I do think they're strong this season, from their record-breaking regionals score to their impressive Cornell performance, but unless they fix whatever went wrong at states, they're not going to get 12th.

I think when bringing up a home-state advantage (which is what I assume jaggie meant to say, rather than "nine state" which may be the result of autocorrect), you have to consider actual distance. Since Ward is on Long Island, they're actually further away from Cornell by driving distance than Rustin and Harriton.

Plus this was actually the first year Ward Melville has been at Cornell, so it's not much of an advantage.

That's true for schools that are in the northeast and are driving but compared to a school like AES or Brookwood that will probably have to fly it could make more of an impact. Also I really need to watch my autocorrect

[Rossyspsce]

This was an issue on other thread, but I think some people are over/underestimating teams that are stacked and unstacked. Generally in unstacking, teams pull the best two in each event and split them in order to build up "carry potential". So, even if Acton went out and beat other unstacked teams, those teams could've had bad event match ups or events where they just threw someone in just to fill the event. Feel free to correct me as I have not gotten the chance to fully look at and analyze invy results.

As for rankings, personally Bothell and Ed W.Clark moves down into mid 24-30 range, as they are both prone to bombing multiple events

[randomperson123]

1. Troy (CA)
2. Solon (OH)
3. Mason (OH)
4. Acton Boxborough Regional High School (MA)
5. Mounds View (MN)
6. Harriton (PA)
7. Seven Lakes High School (TX)
8. Columbia (NY)
9. Adlai E. Stevenson (IL)
10. Mira Loma (CA)
11. Boca Raton Community HS (FL)
12. New Trier (IL)
13. WWP South (NJ)
14. TJHSST (VA)
15. Enloe (NC)
16. Bayard Rustin (PA)
17. Ward Melville (NY)
18. Brookwood (GA)
19. NCSSM (NC)
20. Northville (MI)
21. Clark (NV)
22. Pembroke Hill (MO)
23. Chattahoochee (GA)
24. Madison West (WI)
25. Bothell (WA)