Pennsylvania 2020

[lavarball]

Burleigh Manor... who is that? (see Eagle results)

Team from Maryland. They're decent, but not necessarily a top contender in the state lately. Could be much improved this year, though.

Huge difference from last year. They were very strong today.

[sciolyperson1]

Which Springhouse team was that? Freshman team, regular stacked team, JV team, parent team...?

[MadCow2357]

Perhaps Springhouse is the only team aware of a new policy allowing parents to compete

[112358132134]

Perhaps Springhouse is the only team aware of a new policy allowing parents to compete

I think they've been aware of that rule for years /s

[EastStroudsburg13]

I've gotten around to perusing invite results since CMU/BVF, so here's my thoughts on the divisions right now.

Division B
Based on the registration list on statescioly.org, I see the bid distribution going like this: Central (7), Northeast (8), Northwest (5), Southeast (9), Southwest (7). Consider all of these +/- 1, though, as this is far from an official count. I used this expected distribution for context.

• It's still hard to tell between the top 5 teams. Springhouse (with help?) still seems like the favorite, but Harlan and SSA will likely be within close range, and while Eagle View and Bala Cynwyd lagged a little at Garnet, I think they're better than those results showed. It's going to be a battle until the end.
• Outside of the top 5, there's not much clarity. I still see Mountain View as the most likely team to get 6th, even if their Eagle result was a little lower than I expected. Abington Heights, Strath Haven, Garnet Valley, Stetson, and Welsh Valley will also contend for top 10. Same with Hershey, though it's harder to tell for them.
• Haven't seen a ton in terms of possible breakouts, but North Pocono and Tredyffrin Easttown have improved. The latter will likely benefit from the extra 9th bid to states, after Central East was effectively absorbed by the Northeast.
• I do expect North Pocono to make states in that new-look Northeast, but it could be tricky with the CEPA teams involved. I count about 11 teams that I expect to contend for the 8 spots: Springhouse, Harlan Rowe, Abington Heights, Whitehall-Coplay, Kutztown Area, Wayne Highlands, North Pocono, Wilkes-Barre Academy, Dallas, Exeter Township, Fleetwood. Wyoming Seminary Lower seems to have dropped this year, part of the larger downward trend in B numbers.

Division C
As above, here's my expected distribution: Central (7), Central East (5), Northeast (6), Northwest (4), SE North (4), SE South (5), Southwest (5). Consider all of these +/- 1.

• I'm not willing to make any declarations about Harriton. Yes, their placement at MIT was worse than last year. This was also a stronger MIT field than last year. I'll be watching their SOUP performance carefully.
• Last time I said I might be favoring CV over Rustin. I think I've reversed by this point. It's nothing against CV, but Rustin followed a 6th place at Solon by "school score" (average of stacked score by score of that school's highest-placed team) with a 3rd place at Princeton. It's still a very close race to call.
• As more time goes on, the more convinced I become that Lower Merion is competing with Shady Side for 4th. However, Princeton was their best performance so far. SOUP will go a long way in seeing if LM can put some distance between them and SSA.
• The tier below the state's elite keeps getting more muddled as time goes on. Penncrest and Conestoga are givens, but both of them have had less-than-stellar results. Garnet Valley's results have been right in line with those two, and North Penn's showing at Princeton puts them as possible contenders as well. But the team with the most momentum results-wise is Northwestern Lehigh, which followed a third place at North Pocono up with a win at Barons. They've broken out before, so I want to see them dominate their region before anointing them as the 6th or 7th place team, but they're in good shape to return to the top 10.
• Now, a closer look at the regions most impacted by these invites. In Central, CV will be far ahead in first, and I'm curious to see how low they can get. SCA and Hershey are 2/3, and probably Manheim Central in 4th, with Elizabethtown, Red Land, and Central York filling the remaining slots, unless the region gets 6 slots instead of 7.
• Going from 6 spots in CEPA to 5 is offset by Perkiomen Valley and Wyoming Seminary going to SE North. Northwestern Lehigh and Parkland are the likely 1 and 2. 3-5 are likely Allentown Central Catholic, Kutztown, and Exeter Township. There is surprisingly little intrigue here, but if CEPA only gets 4 spots, that changes in a hurry.
• North Pocono/Tiger have done a lot to crystallize NEPA below North Pocono and Abington Heights. Stroudsburg and Athens will probably wind up competing for 3rd/4th, with me giving the edge to Athens right now. The remaining two spots will be between Wyoming Area, Wallenpaupack, and Dallas, and it'll be hard to tell until the end since Dallas again has not attended any invitationals.
• In the new SEPA North, three spots are going to be Harriton, Lower Merion, and North Penn. Perkiomen Valley is the logical choice for the fourth spot, but I want to see a solid showing at SOUP before giving it to them. It will be especially interesting to see how they fare against Central Bucks South, one of their likely competitors for that spot. There is a small chance of this region getting 5 bids, which would really open things up.
• SEPA South is the more difficult of the SEPAs. Rustin is most likely the champ, with Stoga, Penncrest, and Garnet Valley in some order behind. The last spot could be Shipley, West Chester East, Strath Haven, or Haverford, and based on invitationals, I would pencil in WC East to finally break through. However, if Shipley or Strath shows out at SOUP, that could change. Fingers crossed this region does get 5 bids and not 4.

[Sc1olygod]

Cv really looked like they really dropped off in between Battle at Valley Forge and Solon. They beat rustin superscored by over 60, and then lost to them by over 30 at solon. I think Rustin is either pushing forward or CV is struggling to improve. We saw this same situation last season as well.

[builderguy135]

Cv really looked like they really dropped off in between Battle at Valley Forge and Solon. They beat rustin superscored by over 60, and then lost to them by over 30 at solon. I think Rustin is either pushing forward or CV is struggling to improve. We saw this same situation last season as well.

From what I heard CV lost a bunch of members the day before Solon because of the flu and an allergic reaction.

[RavidD]

I think Lower Merrion is being underestimated. They had a really good showing at the Princeton Invitational and are showing signs of improvement as the season moves along. I think SOUP will be the place to assess the big strides they've made.

[CrayolaCrayon]

[*]As more time goes on, the more convinced I become that Lower Merion is competing with Shady Side for 4th. However, Princeton was their best performance so far. SOUP will go a long way in seeing if LM can put some distance between them and SSA.

What in particular makes you think LM is near 4th? Nothing against your predictions, I'm trying to understand the rationale of putting them at 4th, when at Princeton, their stacked score nearly matched Rustins.

[sciolyperson1]

[*]As more time goes on, the more convinced I become that Lower Merion is competing with Shady Side for 4th. However, Princeton was their best performance so far. SOUP will go a long way in seeing if LM can put some distance between them and SSA.

What in particular makes you think LM is near 4th? Nothing against your predictions, I'm trying to understand the rationale of putting them at 4th, when at Princeton, their stacked score nearly matched Rustins.

LM superscore is 224, Rustin superscore is 221.