Unofficial Rankings C

[Tailsfan101]

Here's my top 20 predictions:

1. Troy
2. Mason
3. Solon
4. Harriton
5. Mounds View
6. Seven Lakes
7. Northville
8. Mira Loma
9. New Trier
10. Adlai E. Stevenson
11. Fayetteville-Manlius
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. Columbia
14. WW-P North
15. Grand Haven
16. Carmel
17. Camas
18. Lower Merion
19. Brookwood
20. William G. Enloe

Honorable mentions: Chattahoochee, Ed W. Clark, Boca Raton, Pembroke Hill, Fossil Ridge, TJHSST

[windu34]

Modified the prediction spreadsheet from East and adapted it for nationals. I incorporated States, MIT, and Nationals scores from this year and last year to calculate subscores for each section and took a weighted sum of the subscores. Subscores were composed of raw performance based on competitiveness as well as an improvement factor.
Troy was a pretty clear leader, and Harriton was only marginally higher than Mason. Factors such as geography, tendency to under/over perform, and nationals experience were not considered as I would like to have a quantitative way to design such factors so that they do not become arbitrary.

Rank | School Name
1 Troy High School
2 Harriton High School
3 Mason High School
4 Solon High School
5 Acton-Boxborough Regional High School
6 Northville High School
7 Seven Lakes High School
8 Mounds View High School
9 Mira Loma High School
10 West Windsor-Plainsboro High School North
11 Columbia High School
12 Brookwood High School
13 Grand Haven High School
14 William G. Enloe High School
15 New Trier High School
16 Fayetteville-Manlius High School
17 Adlai E. Stevenson High School
18 Lower Merion High School
19 Carmel High School
20 Boca Raton Community High School
21 Pembroke Hill High School
22 Fossil Ridge High School
23 Auburn High School
24 Camas High School
25 Chattahoochee High School
26 Iolani School
27 Blue Valley North High School
28 Russell High School
29 Ed W. Clark High School
30 Lincoln Southwest High School
31 Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology
32 The Charter School of Wilmington
33 Archimedean Upper Conservatory
34 Centennial High School
35 Madison West High School
36 University High School
37 Raleigh Charter High School
38 Barrington High School
39 Albuquerque Area Home Schoolers
40 Hopkins School
41 Mat-Su Career and Technical High School
42 Waynflete School
43 Farragut High School
44 Ames High School
45 Treasure Valley Homeschool
46 Casady School
47 National Cathedral School
48 St. Mary's Academy
49 Maple Mountain High School
50 St. Martin's Episcopal School
51 South Burlington High School
52 Yankton High School
53 Merrimack High School
54 Bismarck High School
55 Little Rock Central High School
56 Helena High School
57 Clinton High School
58 Thunder Basin High School
59 Parkersburg High School
60 Cathedral High School

[EastStroudsburg13]

As a comparison, here's how mine ranks the teams. I took more liberties in letting invitationals influence the rankings this year, so we'll see how they turn out!

Click for ranking (Click to Show Hidden Text)

[list=1][*]Troy
[*]Harriton
[*]Solon
[*]Northville
[*]Mira Loma
[*]Mason
[*]Mounds View
[*]Seven Lakes
[*]New Trier
[*]Acton-Boxborough
[*]Adlai E. Stevenson
[*]Columbia
[*]West Windsor Plainsboro North
[*]Fayetteville-Manlius
[*]Brookwood
[*]Carmel
[*]Grand Haven
[*]Pembroke Hill
[*]Fossil Ridge
[*]William G. Enloe
[*]Lower Merion
[*]Boca Raton Community
[*]Chattahoochee
[*]Iolani
[*]Ed W. Clark
[*]Camas
[*]Charter School of Wilmington
[*]Archimedean Upper
[*]Lincoln Southwest
[*]Auburn
[*]Russell Independent
[*]Madison West
[*]Blue Valley North
[*]Raleigh Charter
[*]Thomas Jefferson Science & Technology
[*]Centennial
[*]Hopkins
[*]Barrington
[*]University
[*]Maple Mountain
[*]Albuquerque Area Home Schoolers
[*]Bismarck
[*]Treasure Valley Home School
[*]Casady
[*]Farragut
[*]Mat-Su Career and Technical
[*]Ames
[*]Helena
[*]St. Martin's Episcopal
[*]Merrimack
[*]Waynflete
[*]St. Mary's Academy
[*]Clinton
[*]Little Rock Central*
[*]Yankton
[*]Cathedral
[*]Thunder Basin
[*]National Cathedral School
[*]Parkersburg
[*]South Burlington[/list]

In addition, if you're not happy with where your team (or your state's team) is listed, it might be because I don't have close enough data! Here is the data I am missing:

States Score and Number of Events Run (Click to Show Hidden Text)

[list][*]Arizona
[*]Arkansas
[*]Maryland
[*]South Dakota[/list]

State Tournament Size, Score, and Number of Events Run (Click to Show Hidden Text)

[list][*]Alaska
[*]District of Columbia
[*]Hawaii
[*]Maine
[*]Nevada
[*]Oklahoma
[*]Oregon
[*]West Virginia
[*]Wyoming[/list]

[Unome]

I took more liberties in letting invitationals influence the rankings this year, so we'll see how they turn out!
...
4. Northville
6. Mason

How much was the influence before?

[pb5754]

I took more liberties in letting invitationals influence the rankings this year, so we'll see how they turn out!
...
4. Northville
6. Mason

How much was the influence before?

Also...

...
8. Seven Lakes
...

[EastStroudsburg13]

Let me just say that Mason and Seven Lakes would have been a few places lower if I had not incorporated invitationals so strongly...

Both teams fall victim to the uncertainty introduced by not having qualified for nationals last year, especially with the amount of weight put on past performances. I tried to experiment with making past performances not count for as much, but the overall performance was not as good.

[Alex-RCHS]

I took more liberties in letting invitationals influence the rankings this year, so we'll see how they turn out!
...
4. Northville
6. Mason

How much was the influence before?

Also...

...
8. Seven Lakes
...

Also, Mira Loma at 5th and Enloe at 20th both seem strange to me.

[EastStroudsburg13]

Also, Mira Loma at 5th and Enloe at 20th both seem strange to me.

For whatever reason, the algorithm always likes Mira Loma. It successfully predicted ML's win in 2016, but it was too high on ML last year. They're another team where underperforming the algorithm projection would not surprise me.

As for Enloe, the teams from 15-22 were all rated incredibly closely, especially 15-20. Enloe ended up getting the unlucky end of the sequence. There's also a cap of diminishing returns at a certain percentage of state points, as it actually improves the overall algorithm performance; this is something I'll watch for this year to see if it holds with the additional influence I'm giving invitationals.

[Unome]

Let me just say that Mason and Seven Lakes would have been a few places lower if I had not incorporated invitationals so strongly...

Both teams fall victim to the uncertainty introduced by not having qualified for nationals last year, especially with the amount of weight put on past performances. I tried to experiment with making past performances not count for as much, but the overall performance was not as good.

Personally, I don't think Seven Lakes in 8th is unreasonable - if Northville and Mira Loma have good days, I could see both ahead of them pretty easily.

Another random thought - I've wondered in the past whether the amount of time between State and Nationals has an effect on performance for newly-qualified teams. Have you looked into this factor?

[EastStroudsburg13]

No, although that's certainly worth exploring. I already have a factor in to account for Montana's schedule. I'll add it to the list of things to explore with the data after this year.